Animproved the prediction accuracy of the Fractional- order accumulated Grey model by Fourier series and Its application in Container Throughput Forecasting in Danang Port, Vietnam

Abstract

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of fractional- order accumulated Grey model (GMr (1,1)), this study using Fourier series to modify their residual error of this model. To verify the effectiveness and the contribution of the proposed approach in modeling the Container Throughput in the future, the volume of Container Throughput in Danang Port from 2011 to 2023 is used for the modeling to forecast the Container Throughput demand from 2025 to 2028. Forecasting results proved that the Fourier- GMr (1,1) is a better than the GMr (1,1) model with the lowest MAPE =0% and 5.59% for in sample and out of sample data, respectively. This result is not only show the effectiveness of proposed model but also offers valuable insights for Danang policymakers in orientation and planning management agency so as to boost the development of upcoming port activities