Enhanced the GMr (1, 1) Model in Forecasting and Decision—Making

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new systematic approach for improving the prediction performance of GMr (1, 1) by optimized the fractional order accumulation. Some numerical examples in Wu research and the real case in international visitor forecasting to Quang Ninh province were used to illustrate the effectiveness of proposed systematic approach compared with the GMr (1, 1) model and the traditional grey model. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed systematic approach can have a significant improve the predication performance with the lowest error of MAPE in all cases. This result offers more valuable tools for policymakers in forecast, orientation and development in the future. In particular that for Quang Ninh policymakers in building and developing policies regarding tourism industry management.