Application of Grey forecasting model to estimate the Cargo throughput in Vietnam seaports

Abstract

This study employs the GM (1,1) and FGM (1,1) models to forecast cargo throughput at seaports in Vietnam and compares their forecasting performance to determine the more accurate model. The forecasting value from 2025 to 2030 was conducted based on the annual datasets from 2015 to 2023 collected from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The findings indicate that both models are applicable in this context. However, the FGM (1,1) model demonstrates superior accuracy with the forecasting precision achieved 99.91%. As a result, the FGM (1,1) model is recommended for future cargo throughput forecasting at Vietnamese seaports. This result is also a scientific basis for planners, investors, and the government to have the basis to strengthen the inspection and operation activities and to make appropriate policies for the construction of seaport infrastructure in Vietnam. In addition, the forecast will help port managers to plan and make appropriate plans for seaports.